As I have watched the drama unfold in Wisconsin I am struck by something that while actually very simple has become complicated. When private enterprise negotiates with employee groups or unions it is with the understanding that the organization will have to provide the funding for any negotiated increases. However, when a government – state, local or federal – is negotiating with employee groups or unions they bear no responsibility for funding any negotiated increases be it in salary or benefits. Any negotiated increases will be funded by someone else – us taxpayers! It is actually worse than that – they typically are either rewarding support groups or currying the favor with those groups so the better the deal the more likely the support. And then when a leveling becomes necessary we see action that if done in other settings would be unthinkable. Choreographed “sick outs” and phoney sick notes distributed by health care professionals caught on video should result in immediate termination, but that is unlikely. Think about it – if you work in the private sector and tried that what do you think would happen? Beyond that, what message are the teachers sending to those they are charged with teaching? Added to this tragic display we have elected officials “hiding out” (analogous to a 2 year old throwing a temper tantrum) and not reporting for work to avoid a vote on the issue. Another sterling example for the young people in our country. So we go on knowing that in the end it will more than likely work out but why does it have to take this track?
Author: lorenberg
Tonto Verde Golf Community Prospects
As we look at the retirement real estate market, particularly the golf community segment, there are many moving parts. Tonto Verde shares in the difficulty of defining that market and more importantly how to reach that market. As we define our choice as 4 Star, we have most of the things in place to meet that definition. Not only are the amenities in place, our setting here between two mountain ranges with essentially 360 degree views provides a difficult to match, let alone exceed, setting.
I think we have defined the outside size of the market but have differences as to what part of that market are candidates for Tonto Verde. The market is the 10,000 that will turn 65 every day for the next 19 years. For our purposes I think that the market is the 10,000 per day that turn 55 and the 10,000 that turn 56 and so on through the 65 year olds. Many, if not most, begin the search for a retirement home before they actually retire. In our case we considered, and visited; North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Nevada in addition to Arizona with the thought that there was no timeline but that when we found what we wanted we would buy. In our case that occurred three years before I retired and we bought in Tonto Verde.
I think it was at the meeting before last when we discussed the income level necessary to be a prospect for Tonto Verde. The minimum numbers that were tossed out were $200K in income or assets of $2 million. Those numbers may be right for those in Tonto with one of the higher end homes and a second home elsewhere but for someone that is looking at a townhouse, and it will be their only residence, the numbers are much lower, particularly in the current real estate market. We are not a Sun City but we are also not Estancia. So how big is our potential market? Somewhere in the 3,650,000 each year that are in the age range – something over 36.5 million – are the Tonto Verde prospects. If only 1% would be prospects the potential is 365,000 floating around out there. Unfortunately there is no neat way to identify that 1% or whatever the number is. Someone in the group postulated that our potential market was only about 1,000 per year which I think is conservative to the point of being meaningless. Was that the case I doubt there would be the population that is now in the Verdes. We are not going to approach getting 100% of the potential market so we had better hope it is larger.
The difficulty is determining how to reach the market. As I noted earlier they are not defined but are mixed in with the 36.5 million. This suggests to me that we have to cast a fairly wide net. Working the private clubs in the Midwest and West coast can probably yield some prospects. But even that is very restrictive. If, as we have discussed, we do the “surge”, with the substantially lowered initiation fee, we may well open private club membership to an entirely new population. If there are two golfers in the family, the $650.00 monthly dues yields a rather acceptable cost per round and certainly is less than playing daily fee courses. For instance if the membership only plays 20 rounds for the month – 10 per person, less than 2 ½ rounds each per week – the effective green fee is $32.50. And this is for a 4 Star experience! The substantially lowered up front cost totally changes the dynamic. This will be particularly true for the aforementioned prospect where this will be their only residence.
I am sure that most of us that have chosen Tonto Verde would have no problem recommending this area to anyone. We are in fact he hidden gem in the valley and need only to get the word out.
Apple or PC?
As I approach the purchase of a new computer I am struggling with my choices. Over the last few years I have stayed with notebooks and currently have a 15″ HP and a 13″ MacBook but now want something with a larger display. If I stay with the notebook format my considerations are a Hewlett Packard with an 18″ display or the 17″ MacBook Pro. I am also considering an all-in-one and here the options are 23″ HP or the 27″ iMac. The display on the 27″ iMac is unbelievable however the choice of a Mac, either the iMac or MacBook Pro, creates some compromises with software. While a goodly number have Mac specific options, some like Microsoft Office are short of some of the functions that are available in the PC versions. Others, like one of my favorites PDF Converter Pro, is not available for the Mac. By the way, there is a program with some of the features of PDF Converter for the Mac, deskUNPDF PDF Converter, but here again it is missing key features, principally converting a PDF file to a MS Word form, something I find very useful. I have used QuickBooks since it first was introduced and the Mac version does not share a common file format with the Windows version which creates issues with all of my historical data. I guess one can modify the data to some extent but that entails a very laborious manual conversion of file names and the like.
So it appears that if I decide on a Mac I am destined to run most of my applications in Windows on the Mac which kind of defeats the purpose of having a Mac. Also, my understanding is that if you run Windows on a Mac you eliminate one of the Mac’s strengths, the virus resistance. Having said all of this, it appears that while I love, and lust for, the display on the Mac it makes little sense to go that way. My current Mac – the 13″ MacBook – is my traveling computer which is light and when on the road I seldom get involved in the more feature intensive tasks and do none of my financial work.
My computer experience runs the full gauntlet. I started with an Apple 2E in 1979 and over the years have had just about everything – the original IBM, the first Macintosh, a Toshiba laptop with the gas plasma display (all 13 pounds of it), dabbled with an Osborne, even had a brief experience with the first Compaq (it was called a portable but was better described as a lugable) and for the last 20 plus years have been a PC guy.
So now I feel that I have to decide on the 18″ HP notebook or the HP all-in-one. I would like someone out there to mount an argument for me to choose the Mac. Given my limited experience with a Mac recently I may be missing some key points that would change the equation.
Problems with Trucks!
I do not know when it happened but at some point semi-truck drivers went from knights of the road to bully’s of the road. One only has to drive the freeway system to see ample evidence of this, particularly routes like I40 across northern Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. For instance – two trucks driving side-by-side on a 2 lane freeway. Cutting you off on an uphill grade so that they do not have to slow down. Some states have addressed this problem by forbidding trucks in the left lanes, but this only works where there are more than two lanes in each direction.
Another issue – the tire chunks that litter our roads. This happens because truckers are using recap tires on their trailers. These chunks are a hazard when they fly off – they could hit your car and if you should hit one lying on the road. Also, we are stuck with the cost of picking up this trash. Think of it – what would happen if you pitched a piece of junk out the window? Depending on the state, you could be liable for up to a $1,000.00 fine! But for truckers we are charged for the litter.
One of the best stretches of the Interstate system is I580 from Oakland to the I80/I580 split – NO TRUCKS!! I know that trucks are necessary but I do think that something should be done to address the abuses.
Starting Over!
Every now and then it becomes necessary to just start over! I encountered one of those times over the last 4 or so weeks. It all started as the performance on my computer degraded to the point that I felt compelled to do something about it. After exhausting my ability, I contacted HP support and began an interesting and sometimes frustrating experience. HP has strong customer service and to no fault of theirs it became increasingly obvious that the only real solution was to start over. The process began with backing-up all of my data files – documents, pictures, videos and music – basically anything that was not a program file. As an aside, my Western Digital “My Passport” proved to be invaluable. With its 1 TB capacity and smooth operation it handled this task with aplomb. Back to the story. For some reason the Recovery Drive partition on the computer had become corrupted so the only option was to order a Recovery Disk set from HP. Once received I inserted the disk and watched everything on my computer disappear! I did not want to ghost my drive for fear of reintroducing whatever was causing the performance problems.
I forgot to mention that we have two homes situated about 1,800 miles apart. As luck would have it all of my software documentation and disks were at the home 1,800 miles away. We have an individual that checks our house and I had him locate what I needed and ship it to me here in Minnesota.
With a clean slate the next task was to upgrade Windows Vista to Windows 7 something that is not difficult only takes time. After that, reload all of the program files, some on disk some stored on the aforementioned Passport drive. Finally a month or so after starting the process, I have my computer back to usable condition and the performance is back to an acceptable level. I guess the moral of the story is that while this process is time consuming and can be fraught with problems the payoff makes it worthwhile. By way of history, the computer is about 1 and 1/2 years old and my tendency to try new things -ie. downloading items from the internet – more than likelihood contributed to the degradation in the performance.
If you have experiences similar to this I would like to hear from you on how you addressed the problem.
My Droid
As I close in on my second full month with my Droid I am generally satisfied. I should probably make that statement more positive as with the range of functions available on the device, I can pretty much exist without other devices, such as a computer, if I so choose. By the way, I transitioned from the Storm 1 and considered the Storm 2 but ultimately chose the Droid. The display is top-notch and reading Tweets or internet sites are easy. I find myself using the on-screen keyboards almost exclusively even though the Droid has a slide out physical keyboard. The flat slide out keyboard is difficult for someone with fat fingers like me to use. Further the on-screen keyboards are easy to use. One thing that I miss is Poynt! While there are location programs for the Android system, I have not found anything that works quite as well as Poynt which is available for Blackberry devices. I can only hope that Poynt will be ported to Android.
I have encountered a two things that probably should have been identified by either Verizon, Google or Motorola. For starters, the Droid is not recognized by 64 bit Windows. I discovered this when attempting to move music from my 64 bit Windows machine. Thankfully I have a networked 32 bit Windows machine and had no problems making the transfer. However, I discovered this pretty much by myself. I talked with both Verizon and Motorola and neither of them offered this information. Another issue was with Tweetcaster. I was experiencing problems with Gmail and Tweetcaster suddenly being unable to connect. A reset to factory spec solved the problem for a short time but inevitably the problem would reoccur. Conversations with Verizon support yielded a decision to replace the device. Shortly after setting up the replacement device the same problem occurred. Removing Tweetcaster solved the problem. I am currently using Twidroid with no problem.
As noted earlier, I am happy with the Droid and truly appreciate all of it’s capability.
Perception vs. Reality
Today I read the following quote from Oprah Winfrey “People don’t change behavior or positions based on what they know. They change based on what they feel.” That quote I think is a corollary to one thing that I have believed for a long time – That is – “Perception is reality to the perceiver”. Think about it, if someone believes something to be the case they often persist in that belief even in the face of evidence to the contrary. Why is this the case? I do not know for sure, but I think it has to do with preconceived notions, value systems, myth or things that have been touted as fact for a long time.
So what does this mean for us? It means we have to be aware of our audience’s perception of us and be prepared to make the appropriate adjustments to square the perception with our reality. The social media tools can and should be a major component in this quest. First, we should be tracking any mention of us on the social media networks. Google Alerts and other tools will provide you daily with a list of items that appear with you or your organizations name. Strategically placed questions in the various social media forums, Twitter and Facebook come to mind, can enlist responses that provide a picture of how we are viewed. Armed with the information that we glean from all sources we can, again using the social media tools, work to change the perception our audience holds of us. It can also mean that our current offerings are not meeting the needs of our audience. This too is valuable information and can provide us with what we need to make the changes necessary to meet the expressed wants and needs.
Not adapting to what we find is analogous to pushing a chain up the hill – it does not work! Start today to build your intelligence system and begin assembling all of the information you can acquire and be ready to adapt.
Driving Distractions
Today after spending the entire day in Traffic Survival School and listening to all of the evils of cell phone usage while driving I got to thinking about driving distractions in general and came to the conclusion that cell phone usage may be getting a bad rap. In particular when talking about hands-free usage. I have always wondered why talking hands free on a cell phone while driving is any more distracting or dangerous than talking to the passenger in the front seat. Additionally, I suspect that hands free cell phone usage is probably less distracting than talking to passengers in the back seat as many times drivers tilt their head to the right taking their focus from the road.
As a result of that I assembled a list of other distractions that in my opinion are more dangerous than cell phone usage generally and particularly when compared to hands-free usage. Number one on my list is women applying makeup or doing their hair while driving. Think about that – what is necessary to apply makeup or do hair – generally it requires looking in a mirror and often times requires both hands! The classic example of this occurred a few years ago in the Dallas Texas area. On a major thruway in morning rush hour I witnessed a woman in bumper-to-bumper traffic at 55 mph with her hair spray in one hand, a hairbrush in the other and the visor down so that she could look in the mirror! Had there been a collision it would have been called an accident, but in my mind it would have been an “On Purpose”. As we move down the list, people dealing with children in the back seat comes to mind. It is not uncommon to see someone turned about 90 degrees away from the road and looking in the back seat dealing with children. On my way home this evening, I followed a woman that steadfastly refused to use her turn signals. After a bit I pulled abreast of her car and found the reason. She had her small dog in her left arm and I am sure that made things like working the turn signal lever difficult. Further, having Fido in her arm, and wiggling around as animals do, surely distracted her attention from driving. Not only was she potentially distracted but with Fido in her left arm she is most certainly ill prepared to respond to any unexpected occurrence. I am sure that most of us have witnessed people reading while driving, often times in rush hour traffic. There is no doubt in my mind that reading a newspaper or book while driving is far more distracting than talking on a cell phone as by definition to read your eyes have to be diverted from the road. At least while talking on a cell phone one can keep their eyes on the road. This list is my no means all encompassing and I suspect that most could add activities to the list, but I think you get the gist of what I am talking about.
No one talks about law enforcement officers usage of communication gear while driving. In addition to the equipment installed in their squad car, I often see them talking on a cell phone and not the hands-free variety. Now I find it difficult to believe that the average law enforcement officer is more qualified to multitask while driving that most of us average citizens. I would even suggest that given the sometimes highly charged and oftentimes emergency nature of their communications that law enforcement officers would be more distracted than us average citizens. Wonder why there is no chatter about this one!
I, like most, have witnessed people who are obviously distracted talking on a cell phone while driving but as noted earlier distracted driving is not unique to cell phone usage and probably not the most distracting. Further, as noted earlier, using a voice activated hands-free cell phone dramatically reduces any risk. One would properly argue that doing anything else while driving holds the prospect of distracting the driver from Task One but having said that it would be difficult to eliminate things like talking with a passenger in the front seat or other normal activities. So before we “Throw the baby out with the bathwater” let’s slow down and consider all of the facts.
Hard to Believe That These Quotes Are Not From Today
“It has been said the greatest volume of sheer brainpower in one place occurred when Jefferson dined alone...” John Kennedy
HOW DID JEFFERSON KNOW??????
When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt as Europe.
Thomas Jefferson
The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not.
Thomas Jefferson
It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes.
A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world.
Thomas Jefferson
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.
Thomas Jefferson
My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.
Thomas Jefferson
No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms.
Thomas Jefferson
The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.
Thomas Jefferson
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.
Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson said in 1802:
‘I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered..’
Mark Twain Said It All
“No man’s life, liberty or property is safe while Congress is in session.” This famous quote from Mark Twain describes our current situation more so than any in recent memory. The Reid/Pelosi cabal is attempting to fabricate the most egregious grab of personal liberty at least since the New Deal. Without a doubt they have failed to acknowledge that most of the power is reserved to the individual states and is not their personal playground. Healthcare needs to be fixed but not blown up. When over 80% of Americans are satisfied with their current healthcare it seems to me that a more stepped approach is required. Why can we not eliminate the fraud and abuse in Medicare without ripping apart the entire system.
Further, President Obama promised “If you like your current insurance you can keep it”. Right after that he said that we need to eliminate the Medicare Advantage programs, coverage currently subscribed to by some 10,000,000 seniors! What are we Chopped Liver?? Additionally the plan envisions cutting a half a trillion dollars from Medicare and they have the audacity to say that this will not cut the quality or availability of care.
All we can do is hope that one of two things happen; either the Republican wins in Mass or the weight of public opinion gets to heavy and they have to back off.
