The Law of Unintended Consequences and it’s corollary No Good Deed Goes Unpunished continue to prove out.  Remember when meetings and conferences at places like Las Vegas were trashed?  Well, this caused a substantial decline in visitors to Las Vegas and the loss of an not inconsequential number of jobs.  The real tragedy is that Las Vegas is one of the least expensive places to have a conference or meeting!  Similarly, when the use of private jets was trashed more jobs were lost.  I find it bizarre that our President decries the use of private jets but uses Air Force 1 – a 747 – to fly he and his wife to New York for a date.  Quite probably, that 747 burned more fuel on take-off than the combined fuel usage of the three auto executives planes on their total trip to DC.  In scenarios like these, one is reminded of George Orwell’s book Animal Farm.  If you recall, when the animals took over the farm a sign was painted on the side of the barn that said, “All Animals are Created Equal”.  As the pigs rose to power the sign was altered to read “All Animals Are Created Equal But Some Are More So”.  Call it the Political Elite or the Inside The Beltway Mentality we are seeing this demonstrated daily.   President Obama said as much recently with this statement;

“Let me distinguish between professional politicians and the public at large. You know, the public is not paying close attention to the ins and outs of how a Treasury auction goes. They shouldn’t. They’re worrying about their family, they’re worrying about their jobs. They’re worrying about their neighborhood. They have got a lot of other things on their plate. We’re paid to worry about it.”

Obviously, we the “unwashed” are not smart enough to handle the real facts?  Those elected to serve us – be they Republican or Democrat – somehow think they know what is better for us than we do. Forget that we elected them and as was the case in 2010 sent a pretty clear message.  Maybe we can get a conversation going with your examples of the Law of Unintended Consequences or No Good Deed Goes Unpunished.

What is “Fair Share”?  Over the past few weeks we have heard President Obama and other Democrats repeatedly say that all they want is for the top earners to pay their “Fair Share”.  According to the IRS, based on Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), the top 1% of earners paid 38.02% of total personal federal income tax and the top 10% paid 69.94% of total personal federal income tax.  Now the top 10% AGI threshold was $113,799 hardly the millions and billions of dollars often sited. Even the top 1% threshold was not in the millions or billions with $380,354 earning a spot in the top 1%.  These numbers are for the tax year 2008, the most recent I could find.  Contrast this with the bottom 50% paying only 2.7% of total federal personal income tax and the cutoff for the bottom 50% was $33,048.  Further, 47% of all households pay NO federal personal income tax.  Agreed that there are the payroll taxes, Social Security and Medicare, that are paid by most wage earners but these in essence purchase future benefits. 

What, in my opinion, is the unsaid problem is that with almost 50% of all households paying no federal personal income tax all of their incentives are to vote for those that advocate for higher taxes as they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. 

So what is “Fair”?  My solution is for the United States to do away with the income tax entirely and move to a consumption tax – stated another way a federal sales tax.  This accomplishes a few objectives.  One, the higher income group spends more so they would pay more.  Think about it, if a millionaire or billionaire buys a new yacht just think of the tax revenue. Further, a consumption tax captures the “Underground Economy” those that deal in cash and do not file income tax returns.  Even though they do not file tax returns, and report their income, they do purchase things and with a consumption tax we would tap this currently untapped source.  There are no statistics on the “Underground Economy” but there is little doubt that it is not inconsequential.  We could deal with the low income group with credits as we do today and those with no income would continue to be supported by the various welfare programs.

Is this solution perfect, probably not, but it is better than what we have today.  The cost of complying with the current tax situation is enormous and rising and nobody, including the IRS, understands the current tax code.  Another thing that most seem not to understand is that corporations do not pay taxes – they collect taxes.  The cost of taxes is included in the price of their product or service and ends up being paid by guess who?  Yes, we do every time we purchase a product or service.  So raising taxes on businesses is a sneaky way of increasing our taxes.  Higher corporate income taxes, already the highest in the developed world, make our businesses noncompetitive in the global economy so let’s not make the problem worse.

Fair is a funny thing.  My definition, which many do not like, is when “Both Sides Are Not Quite Happy”.  I guess that is also the definition of compromise.  By changing to a comprehensible tax code we just might accomplish that.  Think about it – no April 15^th mayhem!

It appears that Dragon Naturally Speaking finally got it right.  The updated version does not require the large amount of training that was required with the prior versions and as a matter of fact I’m writing this post – I guess I should say I am dictating this post – into WordPress having only installed the program yesterday. When I say that there was not a large amount of training involved I spent a half hour maybe a little less during the entire installation process. The set up was straightforward and included a feature where the program searches through your documents and contacts to get a better feel for your writing style and to add the names in your contact list to the programs recognized words. While I have just begun to use the the new version, I can see where working with longer documents, and even editing longer documents, will be substantially easier without compromising the quality.   I find that the accuracy, even though I am still early using this version, to be amazing. The claim is that with increased usage the accuracy will increase but given what I’m seeing now it can’t get much better, it’s that good.

I tried using earlier versions but have always been frustrated by the poor results, even though I sometimes spent as much as an hour or more in the training process and finally just gave up. Now I don’t know if it is or was my poor dictation style but whatever the new version seems to have figured it out.

The version that I am working with is for the PC but Nuance, the developer, has applications for Macs as well. They also have Dragon Dictate for smart phones which I have installed on my iPhone but have not spent any great amount of time with. So if you have been thinking about acquiring voice-recognition software to ease your typing burden you may want to give Dragon Naturally Speaking a try.

Sunset  at the North Pole.  This is one of the  rarest pictures  that you will ever see in your life when  the moon was closest to the earth.  The  date the picture was taken    Thursday,  the 13th. of March  2011.  Enjoy!

Here are some interesting statistics on how long it takes someone with the wrong intentions (in other words a hacker) to obtain your password.  It really makes sense to use a mix of Upper and Lower Case letters but numbers and symbols and increasing the length of your passwords really ramps up your security level. Also, no common words – probably no real words – and do not use the same password for all of your accounts.

Most-used passwords: 123456, password, 12345678, qwerty, abc123

Time it takes a hacker’s computer to randomly guess your password:

Length: 6 characters
Lowercase: 10 minutes
+ Uppercase: 10 hours
+ Nos. & Symbols: 18 days

Length: 7 characters
Lowercase: 4 hours
+ Uppercase: 23 days
+ Nos. & Symbols: 4 years

Length: 8 characters
Lowercase: 4 days
+ Uppercase: 3 years
+ Nos. & Symbols: 463 years

Length: 9 characters
Lowercase: 4 months
+ Uppercase: 178 years
+ Nos. & Symbols: 44,530 years

Average amount it costs a business to field a phone call requesting a password reset: $10
Proportion of help desk calls that are password-related: 30%
Users who choose a common word or simple key combination for a password: 50%

Data: Gartner, Forrester, Duo Security, Imperva, LastBit Software

Earlier I posted an item entitled “Entitlement? where I questioned whether or not Social Security payments are in fact an entitlement.  This week I received the following from a friend and thought it bared posting.

History Lesson on Your Social Security Card
Just in case some of you young whippersnappers (& some older ones) didn’t know this. It’s easy to check out, if you don’t believe it.  Be sure and show it to your family and friends. They need a little history lesson on what’s what and  it doesn’t matter whether you are Democrat or Republican. Facts are Facts.
Social Security Cards up until the 1980s expressly stated the number and card were not to be used for identification purposes. Since nearly everyone in the United States now has a number, it became convenient to use it anyway and the message, NOT FOR IDENTIFICATION, was removed.

When Franklin Roosevelt, a Democrat, introduced the Social Security (FICA) Program he promised:

1.) That participation in the Program would be completely voluntary, No longer Voluntary.

2.) That the participants would only have to pay 1% of the first $1,400 of their annual Incomes into the Program, Now 7.65% on the first $90,000.

3.) That the money the participants elected to put into the Program would be deductible from their income for tax purposes each year,  No longer tax deductible.

4.) That the money the participants put into the independent ‘Trust Fund’ rather than into the general operating fund, and therefore, would only be used to fund
the Social Security Retirement Program, and no other Government program. Under Johnson the money was moved to The General Fund and SPENT!!! 

5.) That the annuity payments to the retirees would never be taxed as income.  Under Clinton & Gore Up to 85% of your Social Security can be Taxed 

Since many of us have paid into FICA for years and are now receiving a Social
Security check every month and then finding that we are getting taxed on 85% of the money we paid to the Federal government to ‘put away’ — you may be interested in the following:

Q: Which Political Party took Social Security from the independent ‘Trust Fund’ and put it into the general fund so that Congress could spend it?

A: It was Lyndon Johnson and the democratically controlled House and Senate.

Q:Which Political Party eliminated the income tax deduction for Social Security (FICA) withholding?

A: The Democratic Party.

Q: Which Political Party started taxing Social Security annuities?

A: The Democratic Party, with Al Gore casting the ‘tie-breaking’ deciding vote as President of the Senate, while he was Vice President of the US

Q: Which Political Party decided to start giving annuity payments to immigrants?

A: That’s right! Jimmy Carter and the Democratic Party.  Immigrants moved into this country, and at age 65, began to receive Social Security payments!   The Democratic Party gave these payments to them, even though they never paid a dime into it!

Then, after violating the original contract (FICA), the Democrats turn around and tell you that the Republicans want to take your Social Security away!

And the worst part about it is uninformed citizens believe it!

If enough people receive this, maybe a seed of awareness will be planted and
maybe changes will evolve. But it’s worth a try. How many people can YOU
send this to?

I am beginning to wonder how long I can hold out?  After Apple’s announcements yesterday it appears that my days of using a PC are numbered.  Let’s be honest, I have begun the migration – I have, and use daily, an iPhone, iPad and a 13″ MacBook but my “main” device is a HP 18″ laptop.  After I typed main I thought a little and realized that I spend more time on the other three devices than I do on the HP!  And it is not close.  As the integration in the Apple line of products gets tighter and more transparent, not having all of my data and work on Apple products will make less sense.  Up to this point, my primary reason for not making the move has been Quicken – the PC data structure is different that the Apple version and I would have trouble with my history.   I suspect that at some point that problem will be resolved but even is not the answer is rather simple – run Windows on the Mac for that one application.

Having watched Apple for a long time – my first computer was an Apple IIE in 1979 – I originally thought that Steve Jobs was just a brash kid who got lucky but as time as passed it has become abundantly clear that he is in fact a genius.  First, when he returned to Apple he not only stopped the slide but put Apple on the fast tract. To the point that today Apple’s market cap is greater than arch rival Microsoft’s.   Then he began the process of introducing totally new types of products.  Jobs has the knack for figuring out what we want before we know we want it.

So, as the time comes to replace the HP laptop I suspect that the replacement will more than likely be a Mac – either an iMac or a MacBook Pro bringing me full circle – from Apple back to Apple.

Barack Obama has said that Abraham Lincoln is his political hero.  That being the case President Obama might want to recall the following from President Lincoln.

“Property is the fruit of labor. Property is desirable, is a positive good in the world. That some should be rich shows that others may become rich and hence is just encouragement to industry and enterprise. Let not him who is houseless pull down the house of another, but let him work diligently to build one for himself, thus by example assuring that his own shall be safe from violence.”

With increasing percentages of our population, currently over 40%, not paying any Federal income tax, that portion of the voting population incentives are to demand more in the way of government programs, and with their votes support those that  favor the current setup  The end result is  that those that do pay income taxes must surrender a larger portion of the fruits of their labor.

One of our founding fathers, Thomas Jefferson, said the following; “The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not”.

Do we need a safety net?  Yes, however the incentives in that safety net should be focused on providing ways to bring that portion of our population into the group that pays taxes not one that perpetuates the status quo.

Each year for the last three I have vowed to NOT return to Minnesota in late April however, there always seems to be a compelling reason why we should make the trek in that time frame.  Well we are now in the third; wet, cold and windy May, and next year we will remain in Arizona at least until the middle of May.  With May being a pleasant month in Arizona and our own history clearly demonstrating that May in Minnesota can, and probably will be, awful the die is set.  Should we find something that requires our presence before the middle of May, we will fly back for that something and return to Arizona.  I suppose that I could blame our three year scenario on short term memory loss, being Norwegian or some other malady, but in all likelihood it boils down to a poor decision.  The first one can be excused but the two following are a mystery.  So next year I will not miss the year end three-putt party for Poncho’s Gauchos, The Renegades and The Rough Riders.  Also, I will be playing golf in late April and early May instead of looking out the window at awful weather and wondering why I am in Minnesota.

Sometimes I wonder about my own sanity.  I sit here in Alexandria, Minnesota with the temperature at 39° with a mix of rain and snow while back in Rio Verde Arizona the temperature is 84° and the sun is out.  I willingly left Arizona a little over a week ago – What Was I Thinking?  The bad news is that the outlook for the upcoming week, except for Sunday, is pretty much the same with the temperature inching up to the low 50’s.  But we are here and will make it through.  That said, golf is at the best suspect and at the worst non-existent.  There is some good news, the ice on our end of the lake is out but with these temps no boating is on the horizon. Every year I promise that next year I will make the trip to Minnesota much later but every year something comes up that necessitates an earlier departure.   A University of Minnesota climate scientist gave a presentation at Alex Tech yesterday.  He noted that on April 21 (yes, yesterday) in 1980, the temperature was 100; on April 21 in 1945, the temperature was 0 – only in Minnesota can you have a 100 degree difference in temperatures on the same date.  The miserable weather aside, everything is fine with our home here and we have the time to catch up with friends.